Senior Global Leaders May Not Attend COP26. What Does This Imply?

Op-Ed Commentary by Chris Devonshire-Ellis – October 18th, 2021

The upcoming COP26 conference on Global Climate Change and how to deal with it is scheduled to be held in Glasgow next month and has been positioned by the United Kingdom as a prestige global event. It is a United Nations initiative, rather than a UK one, and has been talked up by UK politicians and the Royal Family as a key event at which eco-solutions to the world’s environmental and climate change problems will be solved. Global leaders and businessmen and women have been invited along with specialist academics. Some 25,000 people are expected to visit Glasgow to be part of the eco-friendly vibe with numerous side events and even parties planned.

Plans however appear to be going awry as numerous business leaders have indicated they may not attend in person. I examine in this week’s editorial the reasons why.

The United Kingdom

The UK is extremely good at pomp and ceremony, and pretty good at hosting events. A major draw is the Queen and other Royals, especially the eco-conscious Prince Charles and his son Prince William. All will be attending. The prestige aspect of hosting a global event complies with a nation long thinking of its previous position as a global leader is a major boost to the British psyche.
The tourism issue is a factor, with thousands of people pouring into Glasgow, city leaders will be looking forward to a cash bonanza. Hosting it in Scotland is also a not-so-subtle reminder to those who would like to see independence – do so and you won’t be hosting events like this. Finally, the UK’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson is mindful of the need to allow a party and allow – and be seen to permit – a bit of a party after covid lockdowns. That said, there have been complaints from sponsors about organisation – is accepting corporate money really appropriate for what should be an event free from commercial vested interests? One wonders who really controls the agenda.

The reality is that covid infections are on the rise in the UK again and that the November temperature in Glasgow averages just 7 degrees. It is windy has chill factor and is decidedly off-season. The Royal Family, although much admired, are not considered movers and shakers in global development strategies, they are figureheads. The allure of an early Scottish winter, even with the presence of the Queen, coupled with covid and the attendance of non-vaccinated personnel (see Brazil) have proven too much. Leaders may well virtually attend but being in Glasgow in person is too much when domestic agendas and politics are still, for many, somewhat delicate.

Brazil

President Bolsonaro has refused to be covid vaccinated. He has a track record as a covid and climate change denier and would be given a rough ride were he to attend. He faces serious political unrest at home with calls to oust him. After all, would you want a photo-op with an unvaccinated man whose country has had over 21.6 million cases? Its partially Bolsonaro’s potential attendance that has turned guests away, and this diminishes Brazil. Having him on the personal guest list was naïve.

China

Xi Jinping has spoken more about the need for global cooperation, the environment, and the need for eco-friendly and sustainable solutions the past two years than any other global leader. All have been undertaken virtually, he has not travelled abroad since 2018.

China also has many capable diplomats and experts who will attend, it’s just that Xi is unlikely too. The UK media, remaining true to its current China-bashing roots, has called a non-personal attendance by Xi a ‘betrayal’ of green issues among other even less flattering terms, hardly likely to endear him to the prospect of travelling to Glasgow. But we can expect a virtual address, while China behind the scenes for sure will be in full participation mode.

India

Prime Minister Modi is still in a funk that the UK has not opened up its borders to Indian nationals to visit the UK and has imposed on a ‘reciprocal basis’ the same conditions upon British nationals travelling to India. That seems fair until one considers that the UK covid stats are almost certainly more accurate than India’s and that tens of millions of Indians remain untested. Modi is a domestically focused politician, although wants to be treated as a globally responsible one. Decidedly not a Monarchist, his focus is on the Hindu population in India and with upcoming elections is focused on domestic matters. We can expect a pre-recorded address.

Russia

Vladimir Putin has also not left Russia since late 2018 and has conducted his external obligations virtually. Given the current state of UK-Russia relations and the UK media towards him, again there is no real incentive to attend in person. Having said that, Russia is a major player in developing green energy, has the world’s largest LNG gas fields and is developing new gas power technologies. Like China, Russia can be expected to send a delegation of scientists and a few diplomats, while Putin himself will probably address virtually.

United States

Joe Biden will be attending – in part because it’s a UN conference and he needs to show leadership, and in part because he needs the positive media among the greener generation of US voters. The demonstration of strong US-UK ties is important to both, as are photo-opportunities with the Queen.

Summary

Although the world will be denied photocalls of global leaders together, COP26 has fallen, for the UK at least, at the wrong time for such promotional activities. On the upside, it also spares us the faux comraderie that is often displayed, while on the downside it prevents the holding of side meetings between leaders, although one suspects attending diplomats will be busy running to and fro.
The upside to all this is that at stake are highly serious issues, and that without the media circus and distractions of having Messrs. Xi, Putin, Modi and Bolsonaro present some actual scientific and academic contacts can instead be made, and with that progress.

The UK though finds itself in a difficult position. It is hosting an event where the main political attractions may not be present. That can be construed in two ways – an insult, or as the pragmatic recognition that attending global events during the beginning of the annual flu season in a damp, cold northern British city is probably not the best idea right now.

COP26 – if the British media can behave and cease their beating up of no-shows such as Putin and Xi – could instead showcase the real deliverers of the planet away from disaster – the world’s scientists, academics and other experts who can really affect change. Not having the star attractions at COP26 may be a real blessing in disguise and allow media and attendees to really do their job – concentrate on the issues at hand.