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China’s 2022 Economic Outlook Based on GDP and Economic Indicators from 2021

2022-01-27
China’s economic outlook for 2022 will depend on exports performance, pace of recovery of the property industry, and whether domestic consumption can rebound. China’s economy is mainly driven by exports and industrial production and its services sector, domestic consumption, and investment have not yet fully recovered. Latest economic data from 2021 show that the country is facing mounting downward pressures, mainly due to a property downturn, shrinking demand, and diminished support from exports. The Chinese real estate sector continues to struggle under the government’s deleveraging efforts. COVID-19 and sluggish household income growth are weighing on consumption. Exports performed well in 2021 but started to show signs of a slowdown in Q4.

Featured Business News

Silk Road Briefing

Keep It Quiet Bruce, But Despite The Political Noise, Investment Into Australia From China And Hong Kong Has Been Increasing

01/27/2022

Lost amongst all the current Australian political bellicosity towards just about anyone not American these days, data from Q4 2021, compiled by Asian Investment Research shows that despite the political noise, investment flows from China and Hong Kong to Australia increased both in volume and in total amounts during the last quarter of 2021. RCEP is taking off and will provide significant trade opportunities for Australian exporters to Asia.

Russia Briefing

Italian Corporate Executives Upset EU By Holding Trade & Investment Discussions With Russia

01/27/2022

The divide between EU business and US influenced political issues has manifested itself again as Russian President Vladimir Putin held a long-planned video call with leading Italian CEOs. The EU’s business lobby is unhappy with lost export values into hundreds of billions of Euros should sanctions be imposed for supporting non-EU corporate interests. 32% of all foreign investment into Russia now goes into the Russian Far East, where European executives see trade opportunities with Asia.

Vietnam Briefing

Vietnam’s FDI Dropped Slightly in 2021, but Reopening Measures Are Boosting The Economy

01/27/2022

Vietnam’s FDI and GDP figures suffered and dropped slightly in 2021, due to stringent lockdowns and movement restrictions caused by the pandemic. Nevertheless, Vietnam still recorded a positive GDP, and with the country slowly reopening, economic prospects are bright for 2022. Vietnam Briefing looks at FDI figures for 2021, which industries were impacted, and the outlook for 2022.

India Briefing

Applicability of GST on India Overseas Transactions: FAQs and Case Studies

01/27/2022

We address frequently asked questions about India’s indirect tax regime, specifically the goods and services tax, GST applicability on overseas transactions, and provide case studies into this complex subject.

China Briefing

Can Employers in China Impose Paid Leave On Their Employees During Covid Outbreaks?

01/26/2022

With the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in multiple locations throughout China, some businesses have requested their employees to quarantine themselves at home in order to prevent and control these outbreaks. Individuals are not allowed to move, gather, or depart from their communities with limited exceptions. Employees are unable to perform routine labor in this circumstance, putting both employers and employees in trouble. To handle this, governments at all levels have released normative documents encouraging companies to negotiate with employees to use the paid annual leave on priority. In light of this, we address a fundamental question – do employers in China have the unilateral right to impose paid leave upon their employees?

ASEAN Briefing

Philippines Amends Retail Trade Liberalization Act to Attract Foreign Investment

01/26/2022

The President of the Philippines has approved the final amendments to the Retail Trade Liberalization Act (RTLA), or Republic Act No. 11595. The bill reduces the minimum paid-up capital requirements for foreign retail enterprises, removes the requirement for a certificate of pre-qualification to the Philippine Board of Investments (BOI), and lowers the investment requirements for each store owned by a foreign enterprise. These measures are aimed at attracting greater foreign investment in the retail sector, which before the pandemic, accounted for 23% of the total services industry with a total gross value of US$ 20 billion. Full recovery of the Philippines consumer and retail sector is expected to occur in 2022, with growth also predicted in 2023.

The Bigger Picture

Silk Road Briefing

‘China Plus Central Asia’ Meeting Draws Eurasian Security And Trade Closer Together

01/26/2022

China’s President Xi Jinping held a virtual meeting yesterday (Tuesday, January 25) of the ‘China Plus Central Asia’ grouping, to mark the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between them. The meeting took place as the region becomes more important in terms of China’s Belt and Road Initiative strategy and Asian security issues and specifically Afghanistan. Attending with Xi were the Heads of State from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The group has targeted US$70 billion in China-Central Asian trade by 2030, with specific opportunities for increased exports to China and tourism development.

Silk Road Briefing

The Beijing Proposed 'China-India Ocean Council'

01/25/2022

An interesting initiative emanating from China's recent Foreign Ministerial visits to East Africa, Maldives and Sri Lanka has been the proposed 'China-Indian Ocean Council' - a potential collection of Indian Ocean countries who would form a collective discussion bloc not unlike the Cooperation Between China & Eastern European Countries (CEEC) which was established in 2012.

Silk Road Briefing

United States Closes Afghanistan Embassy And Withdraws Diplomatic Privileges

01/27/2022

The United States government has informed Afghanistan’s diplomats in the country that they will shut down the embassy in Washington and the consulate missions in Los Angeles and New York. Afghan diplomats will also be stripped of their diplomatic immunity. Washington’s move comes less than six months after the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. 162,000 US based Afghans are now without official diplomatic representation.

Russia Briefing

Russia – Azerbaijan 2021 Bilateral Trade Hits US$3 Billion

01/26/2022

The Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mikhail Bocharnikov has said that bilateral trade between the two countries had reached US$2.9 billion for the January-November period of 2021, indicating that the likely bilateral trade volume once December was included would be over US$3 billion. This is an increase of about 10% over the 2020 figures.

Our firm Dezan Shira & Associates provides legal, tax and operational advisory across Asia.
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It has been produced by Dezan Shira and Associates since 1999.

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